While there are no guarantees, the trajectory of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is considered the most reliable indicator of where mortgage rates may be heading. The long-term mortgage rate has moved in sync with the 10-year Treasury rate for nearly 50 years. Economic variables, like inflation, interest rates, and growth or recession, can impact the Treasury yield.
This is why, in recent months, the Treasury yield climbed related to concerns about the economy and inflation. Mortgage rates rose too.